I've been asked to speak on a panel at COMDEX in the fall.  The topic will be "Evaluating New Tools: How to Tell Which Hot, Breakthrough Products Will Stick" and it will be on Monday November 11th from 2:30-3:45.  I think the short answer is "throw them at the wall." 

Surprisingly, even though I live close to Las Vegas and fly my own plane (so its only a few hours away), I've never made it to COMDEX.  This will give me the excuse I've been looking for.